Introduction progressive au transhumanisme… et au-delà

Version hypertexte

== Convergence NBIC ==
Niveau 1: NBIC
Niveau 2: Convergence

== Proche ==
The Eyeborg documentary
Real Humans
La Technomédecine
Quand les humains n'auront plus besoin de postuler

== Lointain ==
Nos enfants seront-ils d'une espèce différente ?
Face à la Singularité
Transhuman Space
Eclipse Phase
Accelerando
Orion's Arm

== Tangent ==
The Power of the blockchain
La Transition laborale
TVA, revenu de base, robotisation : la transition laborale
10 raisons d’adopter le revenu de base

Version texte brut

== Convergence NBIC ==
Niveau 1: NBIC
Niveau 2: Convergence

== Proche ==
The Eyeborg documentary        youtu.be/TW78wbN-WuU
Real Humans                    frwp.org/Real_Humans
La Technomédecine              youtu.be/ObzCCBmUEyo
Quand les humains n'auront     youtu.be/uJG50bHdfXU
plus besoin de postuler

== Lointain ==
Nos enfants seront-ils         on.ted.com/Enriquez12
d'une espèce différente ?
Face à la Singularité          intelligenceexplosion.com/fr
Transhuman Space - tout        frwp.org/Transhuman_Space
Eclipse Phase                  enwp.org/Eclipse_Phase
Accelerando                    frwp.org/Accelerando
Orion's Arm                    orionsarm.com

== Tangent ==
The Power of the blockchain    plus.google.com/explore/powerofblockchain
La Transition laborale         youtu.be/cU3YZlAqiXw
TVA, revenu de base, robots :  wp.me/p1yZU8-1RT
la transition laborale
10 raisons d’adopter           bit.ly/revenudebase
le revenu de base

Version image

Source pour l’image (sera surement laid dans votre navigateur) :

Introduction progressive au transhumanisme... et au-delà

== Convergence NBIC ==
Niveau 1: NBIC
Niveau 2: Convergence

== Proche ==
The Eyeborg documentary youtu.be/TW78wbN-WuU biomécatronique documentaire EN
Real Humans frwp.org/Real_Humans robotique, lovotique, société série FR
La Technomédecine youtu.be/ObzCCBmUEyo médecine, société, géopolitique conférence FR
Quand les humains n'auront plus besoin de postuler youtu.be/uJG50bHdfXU robotique, société documentaire FR

== Lointain ==
Nos enfants seront-ils d'une espèce différente ? on.ted.com/Enriquez12 biologie conférence FR
Face à la Singularité intelligenceexplosion.com/fr intelligence artificielle essai FR
Transhuman Space frwp.org/Transhuman_Space transhumanisme jeu de role EN
Eclipse Phase enwp.org/Eclipse_Phase posthumanisme jeu de role FR
Accelerando frwp.org/Accelerando singularitarisme roman EN
Orion's Arm orionsarm.com singularités multiples univers EN

== Tangent ==
The Power of the blockchain plus.google.com/explore/powerofblockchain finance, économie, société anthologie EN
La Transition laborale youtu.be/cU3YZlAqiXw robotique, informatique, société conférence FR
TVA, revenu de base, robotisation : la transition laborale wp.me/p1yZU8-1RT robotique, société article FR
10 raisons d’adopter le revenu de base bit.ly/revenudebase robotique, société article FR

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United we stand, divided we fall – the coming rise of cryptofiat

This is a call to arms.

Cryptoland as a whole is entering into decadence. We are resting on our laurels because BTC reached 1000 dollars and even now it is three times its 2013 ATH.

Lire la suite

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Blockchain, the future of exchanges

As I did it with Sean King’s article, I repost here a great comment on the power of blockchain — this time relative to mesh networks.

Just a quick excerpt:

The more traffic your facilitate on your network, the more Bitcoins (or “local” crypto) you are paid. The more space your provide for storage, the more cloud computing power, the more you are paid.

Now imagine how it would go with smart grid, renewable energy and automated electric cars. When not in use, you car select continues recharching with its solar cell then once the battery is full, the excess is given to the network, thanks to the smart grid. And you are paid with “local crypto” for this extra electricity you are providing to the network. All of this perfectly secure and with very low fees.

And this just one example of what the future brings to us. You should go into cryptos.

Lire la suite

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The power of the blockchain – Sean King

The original text deserved much more than a poor formatting.

I don’t presently have time to write an excerpt or translate it into French, but if you are interested in doing so, I would be glad to host the said translation or excerpt on my blog.


Dear Mr. Syracuse:

I am an attorney and Certified Public Accountant with a Master’s Degree in Accounting.

For nearly twenty years I have also been licensed life and health insurance agent, a registered representative of a broker-dealer, and an investment advisor representative of an investment advisory firm. Consequently, I am very familiar with both the purposes of, and need for, financial services regulations.

However, I am also an early Bitcoin adopter, and I have a strong understanding of the practicalities and implications of blockchain technologies.

My legal, accounting, securities, insurance, and investment advisory backgrounds, combined with my familiarity with Bitcoin, make me uniquely qualified to offer feedback and commentary on New York’s proposed virtual currency regulations. I hope you find these comments helpful.

Lire la suite

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Extended 10/200 strategy

I introduced you earlier to the 10/200 strategy by noted Bitcoin mogul Risto Pietila:

Everytime the price doubles, sell 10 % of your remaining stash.

And the corollary to the 10/200 strategy, which ensures you get free money from 73% of your stash:

ROI after three doublings.

Here, there is two schools: one that continue to sell after ROI is reached and one that just hold. Which school you will follow depends on how impatient, in need of money or confident on the future of your asset you are.

Now I would like to introduce you to what I call the extended 10/200 strategy. This is nothing new, traders use it everyday. Still, credits go to aminorex.

After selling, place a buy order of the amount your sold at X% below your selling price and sell again at target price. Rinse and repeat.

For instance, your trading plan is to sell 10% of your Monero at 0.0064 BTC. You decide to buy back at 0.0051 BTC, because you are confident this is just a temporary fall in price and that it will reach 0.0064 again and probably more. Once it will reach 0.0064 again, you will sell again. In the process, you will have gain some moneroj. Free money. Once it doesn’t work anymore (the price stops yoyoing around 0.0060 BTC), you just take the money and cash out (or invest it on something else).

This extension of the 10/200 strategy is compatible with both schools (the continuous sale school and the holding school).

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Investment strategy – 10/200 and trailing stop

Disclaimer:

  1. I did not apply these rules in the past and I lost a lot of money.
  2. I am starting to apply them now but it is still too early to say if they work. Caveat emptor. They do work
  3. These are well-known rules, I didn’t invent anything.

Rules

  • Don’t invest more than you can afford to lose
  • Methodology is the key. Well, you still have to find the right method :)
  • Buy low, sell high – which means selling when it seems that it could still go higher
  • Don’t panic buy, don’t panic sell (easier said than done).
    • Don’t sell at a loss – difficult rule to follow, because sometimes it is necessary – after a bubble if you bought high,  for instance.
    • When there is a pump in progress, place a buy order at either 80% or 120% of the price pre-pump – I did not decide yet.
    • Beware of bull traps (a second) increase in value after a sudden drop (anatomy of a bubble). Detecting a bull trap requires looking at much more than six hours, or even a day, so use the various timescale of the charts.
    • When selling, always take into consideration twice the transaction fee (you paid once to get in and you’ll pay a second time to get out), provided both prices are the same percentage, of course.
    • Don’t trust the depth chart (graphical representation of the cumulative ask/buy orders and bid/sell order) they are completely manipulated. Most experienced traders will instant-buy or instant-sell at a price they already decided and will place fake order to give wrong signals to traders.
  • Identify what can go very high and buy. Example of something that won’t go high: a stock with low volume (it may get volume later, so check back from time to time). Check history of the stock, not just the last six hours.
  • Everytime it doubles, sell 10% or your remaing amount. After three  doubling (and thus three selling), you paid back your investment; even if the price crumbles now, you would still make a profit. I call this the “10/200″ rule and credits go to rpietila and kmicic77
  • Place trailing stop orders at 10%. If the exchange doesn’t accept trailing stop, move to another exchange.

Some more thoughts

  • best option if trailing stop is not available: stop loss (a.k.a. seat belt)
  • third best option (always available): take profit

Take profit is implemented in any crypto exchange that I know of. You say at wich price you will sell (for instance, I’ll sell my crypto I bought at 1000 once it will reach 1070).

Stop loss is like a seat belt for your money (if the price goes below 1010, sell). Would you drive a car without a seat belt? Well, on most crypto exchange, you are driving without a seat belt. That’s probably one of the reason why money go so high: no one wants to lose and the best way to ensure this is to have the price go higher. Still, this is not a sane attitude.

Finally, trailing stop is the best one. It will sell not at a fixed price, but at a percentage of the current price! It depends much less on the faith you have on the crypto so it is much less about luck. Of course, you have to choose the percentage carefully (swaphole’s owner considers that 10% is a bit too much) plus, there is a chance that the percentage brings the price lower than the one at which you bought (if the price goes down just after you bought). Kraken has a nice phrase for describing a trailing stop: riding the trend until price falls by X%.

Example

You buy at 1000. The price moves to 1100 then when you come back, it is down to 900

  • No conditional order: you lost money
  • Take profit at 107%: you earnt 70
  • Stop loss at 1010: you earnt 10
  • Trailing stop at 10%: you earnt 90

Of course, the price could spring back from 900 to 1200 and then you would get 200 with no conditional order. Much like when you bet at the Russian roulette and win. Does it still make Russian roulette worth it? I let you be the judge.

Stress

Plus, consider the stress. Do you want to be constantly thinking about the charts and have no life? There are three variables (or operands) in calculating the cost of something, and people rarely consider the three of them. By decreasing order of attention (not of importance), these are:

  • money
  • time
  • energy

With no conditional order, either you are careless, or this money doesn’t matter for you or you’ll spend a lot of (emotional) energy. Personally, this is the third one. Now the added monetary value is not worth the extra energy I would spend. That’s why  rpietila says the 10/50 is a sane method (and I’d say the use of a trailing stop is a sane method too).

Limits

  • I know only two one crypto exchanges with trailing stop: kraken.com (for major cryptos) and swaphole.com (for minor cryptos). Swaphole has all the mechanics working, but has not enabled it because of its presently low volume (5 BTC compared to Mintpal’s 6000 BTC)
  • If everyone was using trailing stop, the market would be much less volatile. Thus, much less money to make. Speculation is a zero-sum game; in order for you to win, it requires someone else to lose. So, it is in your best interest to not have anyone know about trailing stop. So why do I post this? First because I am a compulsive teacher, even when it deserves me. Second because I’d like swaphole.com to have more volume – the best strategy is worth nothing if there is no one to buy your money.
  • I’m still pondering one thing (ouf of the “will my strategy work” question, of course): should I place trailing stop orders on the money I plan to sell? Ideally, I would use a combined order (trailing stop or take profit, whichever comes first), but I don’t know any market which allows it.
  • I do not know any exchange offering combined orders. Two that I’d like to see implemented are:
    • Trailing stop or take profit, whichever comes first
    • Buy order then sell order at +x%

Conclusion

Methodology is everything. Intuition is not your friend and emotion is clearly your enemy. I understand this whole article may sound complex. So please don’t hesitate to ask, I’ll be delighted to reword it to make it easier to understand.

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